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Afghanistan Abandoned

After 20 years of suppressing radical-Islamist Taliban forces in Afghanistan, the United States Military announced that it would completely withdraw its forces from the country by September 11, 2021 – the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks. Although critics of American war policy have rejoiced at this development, humanitarian, diplomatic and political concerns have heightened worldwide as the implications of the withdrawal grow increasingly ominous. Moreover, since May 2021, NATO has been in the process of withdrawing its Resolute Support Forces (RSF) and aid to Afghanistan, further weakening the Afghan Army’s backbone of foreign aid. Essentially, this leaves the Afghan Security Forces bereft of resources and weaponry, making civilians almost entirely vulnerable to the Taliban’s attacks. So, what prompted this “pull-out” policy and what are the concerns and likely consequences?

Background:

The War in Afghanistan began when an informal alliance formed between al-Qaeda and Taliban in September 2001 – established in retaliation against the UN Security Council’s imposition of trade sanctions against the two groups’ regimes in 1999. This led to the infamous September 11 (9/11) Terrorist Attacks within the same month, incurring nearly 3000 casualties and infrastructure damage worth millions of dollars. In response, US President George W. Bush vowed to combat terrorism, signing a joint resolution in Congress permitting the invasion of Afghanistan by American and British forces within a week of the attack. The militaristic terms of the resolution, explained on Section 2, were “that the President is authorized to use all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons, in order to prevent any future acts of international terrorism against the United States by such nations, organizations or persons.”

NATO joined the war in 2003, expanding foreign troop numbers from outside the US to nearly 65,000 by 2006. Despite its large contributions to the war effort, NATO was hesitant to both enter and remain in Afghanistan as its late entrance and early departure plans show – with troop withdrawals planned to begin by as early as 2008. Nevertheless, several successful joint military operations between NATO, US and Afghan forces occurred in subsequent years, particularly after the inauguration of US President Obama, who took a hardline approach to the war by raising US troop numbers in Afghanistan by nearly 50,000, and NATO’s decision to continue military operations and expand control. President Obama’s planned “drawdown” of military presence from 2011 onwards coincided with their successful mission to kill al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in the same year. After nearly 13 years of combat, the first US troop withdrawal occurred in 2014 when the President’s hardline measures succeeded in suppressing the Taliban’s control; this enabled the Afghan National Army to take control of security operations with only the aid of the 13,000 foreign troops who would remain in the country to train them. US cooperation with new Afghan President Ashraf Ghani also ensured that the Afghan government would remain committed to peace.

After the presence of ISIL in Afghanistan increased in 2016, the Trump Administration announced its intentions to prolong combat in the country and deploy more troops in 2017. However, by 2019, President Trump withdrew almost half the soldiers in Afghanistan and announced plans to strike a peace deal with the Taliban. This peace deal was established in February of the following year, but the lack of a ceasefire agreement in its terms led to further attacks by the Taliban. In September, the Intra-Afghan peace talks between the Afghan government and Taliban officials began, but they remained in deadlock as the Taliban refused to cooperate and come to an agreement until all foreign troops left the country. Despite the opposition of NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, who argued that US troop withdrawals were too soon, soldiers continued to be pulled out of Afghanistan in the following months. US President Biden’s announcement in April 2021 that the US military would fully withdraw regardless of progress in peace talks prompted NATO to also announce its withdrawal.




Worst Case Scenario:

The direst consequence of this withdrawal is the complete takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban. This has already begun taking place as the Taliban has, since the announcement of US withdrawal in April, overthrown local governments in several border provinces and launched multiple propaganda campaigns to gain supporters.

The Economist reports, “A running tally by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies estimates the Taliban control close to half the country’s 400-odd districts. The government in Kabul strongly denies this and says any retreats have been temporary and will be reversed. Some districts have been retaken, or have changed hands several times. Many are remote and have little government presence or strategic importance. But the cascade of victories has given the Taliban momentum. Diplomats worry it will continue.”

Why is the Taliban a problem? To answer this, we have to take a look back at Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001, when the Taliban governed roughly three-quarters of the country and implemented Islamic Sharia law in those regions. The Taliban government authorized the systematic genocide and ethnic cleansing of tens of thousands of ethnic Afghan minority groups, particularly the Hazara people (An Afghan ethnic group comprising Shia Muslims instead of Sunni Muslims like the Taliban). Survivors of these massacres have, according to a 2001 UN report, described brutal torture, rape and mass murder in most – if not all – targeted communities. In 1998, when the Taliban captured the northern city of Mazar-e Sharif, they massacred hundreds of residents, "often shooting Hazaras in the street," according to Human Rights Watch.

Newsday reports, “In villages throughout the district, Taliban execution squads rounded up male civilians, beat and tortured many of them, and executed them in batches of six, their arms tied behind them. In Bedmushkin village, the report describes how Taliban executioners ‘skinned from head to chest’ a young man named Mahr Ali and dumped his body behind the former office of the relief organization, Oxfam. It quoted eyewitnesses in many villages as describing Arab fighters carrying long knives used for slitting throats and skinning people.”

Estimates of casualties vary as some rural communities were completely wiped out of existence, with bodies being buried in mass graves, and villages and settlements being burned and razed to non-existence. Even worse were the large-scale, overnight displacements of entire villages and towns, which were subsequently ransacked and razed, leaving hundreds of thousands destitute.





How Can You Help?

Keep up with news reports. Most popular news-media channels regularly update on Taliban activity escalations, civilian casualties and political or diplomatic developments. As of July 2021, there is far too much uncertainty to take any direct action or drastic measures such as campaigning for refugee and asylum programs. However, keeping up-to-date with the news and ensuring that the people around you are aware of the situation in Afghanistan can help motivate the public to collectively take action if any escalations or de-escalations were to occur.


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