The Lukashenko Hijacking: More than Meets the Eye
- Aarush Santoshi
- Jan 12, 2022
- 5 min read
On May 23, 2021 a Ryanair flight headed for Vilnius, Lithuania from Athens, Greece was told by Belarusian air traffic control that there was a bomb on board the plane. The plane was escorted to Minsk International Airport, which serves the capital city of Belarus, by a MiG-29 fighter jet. It was then revealed that the so-called “bomb threat” for which the plane had been rerouted was non-existent. Two passengers were removed from the plane: blogger and journalist Roman Protasevich, a vocal critic of Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarianism, and his fiance Sofya Sapega. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary called the incident “a case of state-sponsored hijacking” and the European Union called for “targeted economic sanctions” against Belarus.
At face value, the incident may seem like an isolated occurrence, but that is simply not true. It comes at a time when the silencing of political dissidence by authoritarian regimes is making international headlines-the execution of Saudi Arabian journalist and dissident Jamal Khashoggi comes to mind, as does the imprisonment of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. In actuality, Lukashenko’s hijacking of Ryanair flight 4978 will have massive geopolitical consequences not only for the Slavic states, but also for the world at large.
Source: New York Times
Lukashenko and Protasevich
Alexander Lukashenko was elected president of Belarus in 1994, receiving 80% of the total votes cast and winning against communist leader Vyacheslav Kebic; his platform was one based on anti-corruption and populism. His victory came three years after Belarus became independent from the USSR, and although Lukashenko did not have a clearly defined platform, his victory was due in part to people voting against the communist establishment. Following his victory, however, Lukashenko took steps to increase his political power, including a controversial referendum that gave him “near-absolute power and a term extension.” He took steps to restore Soviet economic systems with little to no structural reform and established a close relationship with Russia.
Lukashenko has consistently received an overwhelming majority of votes in his thus far successful re-election bids, leading outsiders and Belarusians alike to question the integrity of elections. In his most recent re-election bid in 2020, he seemingly earned 80% of the total vote and won against human rights activist Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. However, opposition factions allege that Tikhonovskyaya won 60-70% of the vote in the places where the votes were counted. This disparity led to protests in Minsk and ongoing demonstrations against Lukashenko.
Lukashenko is often referred to as the “last dictator of Europe” because of his authoritarian economic and social policies, including the implementation of state-controlled media. He has also arrested protestors and political dissidents including his direct political opponents. Although Lukashenko is no longer recognized as president of Belarus by the EU, he refuses to step down.
Roman Protesavich is a prolific Belarusian activist who is extremely vocal in his opposition to Lukashenko. His first arrest for political dissidence came when he was just 17 years old and was found to be the creator of a page called “We are sick of this Lukashenko.” Protesavich claimed in an interview in 2012 that he was brutally beaten while in jail to the point of extreme kidney damage, and was threatened with false murder charges. Protesavich became the editor-in-chief of a Telegram channel called NEXTA, which describes itself as an “insider” perspective on what is happening in Belarus. The page, which has 587K subscribers, partially incited the 2020 uprisings with its calls to action. Since the incident, Protesavich was seen on state-controlled Belarusian media praising Lukashenko and essentially denouncing his past actions against the regime. One of Protesavich’s associates, however, noted that Protesavich seemed to be under duress during the broadcast.
The Geopolitical Implications
The extent of the geopolitical consequences of the hijacking cannot be fully understood without discussing the political and economic relationship between Belarus and Russia. In the past, Belarus has relied on financial assistance from Russia, and it is still dependent on Moscow today. Soon after Lukashenko took power in 1994, he ended all attempts at privatization and instead focused on growing Soviet enterprises, including oil refineries and the fertilizer company Belaruskali. “Belarus produced the best Soviet machinery for Russia, while it exported refined Russian oil and fertilizers to the West'' according to Anders Åslund of the Atlantic Council, and its private industries account for only 20-30% of its GDP. Russia has also provided Belarus with cheap oil and natural gas, sold substantially below market value; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) found that these subsidies account for a whopping 10% of Belarus’ GDP. The lack of market diversification and the absence of privatization both restrict the growth of Belarus’ economy, and Lukashenko’s deficit spending relies on money from Russia. In 2011, for example, Belarus’ rate of inflation rose to 109%, and Lukashenko turned to Russian President Vladimir Putin for a bailout. Although Lukashenko has been able to successfully restore relations with the IMF and the World Bank, many Western countries and organizations are disillusioned by Lukahsneko’s authoritarian policies.
One question remains: Why is Russia so invested in Belarus? The relationship initially seems unilateral, and to some extent that is true. The ultimate goal for Russia is Belarusian integration, and keeping Belarus as close as possible by making it ultra reliant on Russian resources is a means to achieve this goal. Lukashenko’s hijacking of the Ryanair flight politically isolated him from Western Europe and the EU member states, reversing his progress to strengthen Belarus’ relationships with those countries. The reason Lukashenko was able to act with such flagrancy is because he has the near-unconditional backing of Putin and Russia. Even though Lukashenko “has been a very difficult ally”, Russia cannot afford to let him go or risk losing their hold over Belarus.
Since the incident, the EU has banned airlines from flying through Belarusian airspace. It has also banned Belarus airlines from flying over EU territory and landing in EU airports. Russia’s unwavering support for Belarus has manifested as a retaliation against EU’s air travel restrictions; specifically, Russia banned European flights from landing in Moscow in what is predicted to be a short-term retaliatory decision. More broadly, the incident has further strained both Russia and Belarus’ relationships with Western Europe and the United States and has also managed to bring the two countries closer together. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service announced that Belarus and Russia’s intelligence agencies have joined to “counter Western destructive activities aimed at destabilizing the political and socioeconomic situation in the Union State.” The long-term implications have yet to be determined, but Russia’s short term goal of cementing Belarus’ total embrace of Russia has been achieved. The incident also threatens to derail the Biden administration’s plans to restore US-Russia relations.
What Can You Do to Help
As you can hopefully understand from this article, foreign policy is extremely nuanced and complicated. As always, remember to educate yourself before forming an opinion on the issue, and try to rely on unbiased news sources like NPR and the Associated Press. Contacting your legislators is a good first step if you want to be actively involved, although the impacts of a single call will be limited because of the international scope of the issue. If you want to learn more about what is going on in Belarus from people in Belarus, consider reading NEXTA, although keep in mind that it reflects the ideas of opposition leaders (NEXTA is written entirely in Russian, but free online services like google translate can make it more accessible for international audiences).
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