Tigray War: How a Nobel Peace Prize Awarded Prime Minister Declared War

Chirani Silva
Jan 13, 2022
5 min read

Less than a year after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for ending Ethiopia’s decades-long conflict with neighbouring Eritrea, a brutal civil war erupted in the country’s Tigray region. Although the conflict, as a whole, has been seen as inevitable given the ethnic and political tensions in Ethiopia, the humanitarian crisis that resulted from the war – caused by widespread famine and the mass exodus of thousands of Ethiopians by foot – were unanticipated. According to the BBC, “in a UN report, it estimated that 353,000 people in Tigray were in Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and a further 1.769 million are in Phase 4 (Emergency).” So, how did a Prime Minister’s promise of peace become a call to war? And what does the future entail for Ethiopians caught in the conflict?

Source: Al Arabiya

Causes of the War in Tigray:

Between 1977 and 1991, a socialist military junta known as the Derg governed Ethiopia under authoritarian dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam. Under Mengistu’s regime, Ethiopians were subjected to a brutal terror campaign called the Ethiopian ‘Red Terror’ (Qey Shibir), which saw the execution of approximately 30,000-750,000 people, and the 1983-1985 famine, during which 1.2 million people died due to government neglect and rejection of aid in Ethiopia and modern-day Eritrea. In opposition to the Derg, a coalition, known as the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), formed between 4 militias: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) and Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM). The EPRDF garnered the support of hundreds of thousands of oppressed Ethiopians, enabling it to build an army large enough to overwhelm the Derg and win the Ethiopian Civil War in 1991.

Following the EPRDF’s victory, TPLF leader Meles Zenawi was appointed the President of Ethiopia as the Tigrayan region and its militia-turned-political party was critical in opposition efforts. This also allowed the TPLF to become the ruling party in the Ethiopian government. Within only 7 years of coming to power, Zenawi declared war on independent Eritrea in 1998 by militarizing, and fighting along, Ethiopia’s northern region of Tigray, which bordered Eritrea. Although the war ended in 2000, tensions between the two countries persisted in subsequent years as the TPLF remained the dominant political party of Ethiopia, with Zenawi as its leader until he died in 2012. The TPLF’s dominance in government and repeated victories in Presidential elections also led to suspicions of corruption and election rigging, prompting mass protests throughout Ethiopia after TPLF-victory in the 2015 election.

Under pressure from both Ethiopians and the Eritrean government, the Ethiopian government appointed Dr. Abiy Ahmed as Prime Minister in April 2018. Prime Minister Abiy was a popular candidate, known for his pacifist views and advocacy of love, peace, and ethnic unity in speeches. He was also, unlike previous EPRDF leaders – who were all members of the TPLF – a member of the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP). Within 3 months, PM Abiy established peace with Eritrea during the 2018 Eritrea-Ethiopia Summit where the leaders of both countries signed a joint declaration that formally ended the border conflict and opened the border for trade and travel. As a result, PM Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, becoming the first Ethiopian to receive the award.

Nevertheless, PM Abiy entered a rivalry with the TPLF soon after he came to power. This rivalry was likely to have been worsened by the declaration of peace with Eritrea, which TPLF leaders have conflicted with since 1998. Moreover, during the formation of PM Abiy’s Prosperity Party in December 2018, the TPLF was the only party from the four EPRDF parties, and most other Ethiopian political parties, to reject inclusion in the country-wide merger. Tensions escalated further in September 2020 when Tigray went ahead with local elections despite a nationwide postponement of polls due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Finally, the event that set off the war occurred in early November when TPLF forces raided a national military base in Tigray, killing multiple national army officers and seizing a significant quantity of weapons and military hardware. The Ethiopian National Defense Forces joined the Eritrean Defense Forces to attack Tigray on two fronts – the former attacking from the South and the latter attacking from the North.

After months of fighting, the Ethiopian government declared a unilateral ceasefire in late June 2021, withdrawing from Mekelle, the capital city of Tigray. However, the Tigray Defense Forces (the TPLF militia) rejected the government’s demand to withdraw from the regions of Amhara and Afar in early August, prompting the government to threaten an end to the ceasefire. The TPLF announced plans to continue fighting until the government ends its blockade on Tigray, but Ethiopia's Minister for Democracy, Zadig Abraha, denied the TPLF’s claims that humanitarian aid to Tigray was blockaded by the government.

Tigray forces’ spokesman Getachew Reda told Associated Press, “We have to deal with anyone who’s still shooting. If it takes marching to Addis (Ethiopia’s capital city) to silence the guns, we will. But I hope we’ll not have to.”

The conflict is expected to escalate further despite the pleas of the United Nations, aid organizations, and diplomats, particularly because PM Abiy was re-elected for a second term of five years in mid-July, 2021.

Source: The Conversion

Humanitarian Crisis in Tigray:

Tigray, the northernmost region of Ethiopia, is facing a humanitarian crisis caused by war, famine, and blockaded foreign aid.

The Centre for Disaster Philanthropy reports, “According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), as of July 9, 2021, there were 5.2 million people across Ethiopia in need of humanitarian assistance, mainly in the Tigray region. This is an increase of approximately 700,000 people since May 2021. Access to the Tigray region is improving, though humanitarian supplies are still being blocked from entering the region as of July 9, 2021. Overall, only about 10% of the health facilities throughout Tigray are operating and are desperately short on medical staff and supplies.”

Both sides of the war have also allegedly made several human rights violations including the murder of civilians, rape (victims including pre-pubescent minors), sexual slavery, kidnappings, forced famine through restrictions on farming, and the cut-off of humanitarian aid. In particular, Tigrayans have blamed most atrocities on the Eritrean Defense Forces, fuelling recruitment in the TPLF due to its enmity with Eritrea and, effectively, prolonging the conflict.

The BBC reports, “Tigrayans tell of remote villages where people are found dead in the morning, having perished overnight... Based on the just-released numbers from Tigray, it is quite realistic to fear 300,000 child deaths... Independent estimates are that just 13% of the 5.2 million people in need are getting aid... The UN reports 129 incidents of ‘access violations’ by Ethiopian and Eritrean troops and militia obstructing aid last month, and only one case by the Tigray Defense Forces (TPLF).”

Over two million Ethiopians have been forced to flee Tigray in a mass exodus. Many have travelled to neighbouring Sudan by foot, heaving as many of their belongings as they can manage. Sudan, however, is undergoing a humanitarian crisis of its own, increasing pressure on its government to secure aid for refugees as well.

The BBC reported in mid-July 2021, “Some 50,000 refugees are currently sheltering in Sudanese camps close to the border, often in grim conditions as the rainy season sets in and their makeshift tents are repeatedly broken by fierce winds... The concern is that an escalating conflict will further inflame ethnic tensions in Ethiopia, and could also fuel instability in Sudan and Eritrea.”

How Can You Help?

Donations of cash are the best way to help Ethiopians in need of aid as food shortages have led to starvation and famine. Supporting organizations that provide medical facilities like Doctors Without Borders would also be immensely helpful. Listed below are a few links to humanitarian aid groups and donation facilities, but there are many more you can donate to, or take the initiative of organizing.